Related repos¶
K-Fish repos¶
| Repo | Visibility | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| ksk5429/kfish | private | Production uv-workspace monorepo — 9-agent swarm, calibration spine, Telegram bot |
| ksk5429/polymarket-oracle-risk | public, MIT | PyPI analyzer for UMA oracle manipulation-risk scoring |
| ksk5429/quant-notes | public | This site (MkDocs Material) |
| ksk5429/quant | public | Earlier scratch repo (status pending — see open questions) |
| ksk5429/research-notes | public | Separate MkDocs site for offshore-wind PhD research |
Upstreams + references¶
Prediction markets¶
UMA Optimistic Oracle¶
- UMA protocol docs
- UMA subgraphs repo — canonical source for current Goldsky endpoint URLs
- Goldsky public subgraphs — API root
Hyperliquid¶
- Hyperliquid docs
- hyperliquid-python-sdk
- HIP-4 proposal (testnet as of Apr 2026)
LLM forecasting literature¶
- Halawi et al. 2024 — arXiv:2402.18563
- Schoenegger et al. 2024 — Sci Adv 10 (9-persona median ensemble)
- Tian et al. 2023 — arXiv:2305.14975 (verbalized probabilities)
- Turtel et al. 2025 — arXiv:2505.17989
- ForecastBench (Karger 2024/25) — arXiv:2409.19839
- Alur et al. 2025 AIA — arXiv:2511.07678
Calibration¶
- Murphy 1973 — Brier decomposition
- Naeini 2015 — Expected Calibration Error
- Venn-Abers Predictors — library
- Mondrian conformal — crepes library
Tooling¶
- uv
- ruff
- MkDocs Material
- release-please
- Langfuse — LLM observability
- NumPyro — Bayesian inference