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K-Fish Quant Notes

Companion site for K-Fish — a swarm-intelligence prediction engine for prediction markets. This site tracks architecture, progress, reviews, and collaborator-facing discussion. Production code lives in the private ksk5429/kfish monorepo; the public risk analyzer lives at ksk5429/polymarket-oracle-risk.

Quick facts

  • Baseline: Brier 0.1799 on N=100, 0.2026 on N=200 resolved Polymarket markets (legacy engine)
  • Parity: new kfish-core calibration matches legacy Brier exact to 4 decimal places across all three archived runs
  • Public endpoints live: Polymarket Gamma + UMA OOv2 + Managed OOv2 (validated April 2026)
  • Stack: 9-persona Delphi swarm · isotonic + Venn-Abers + Mondrian conformal · DuckDB ASOF spine · Claude + OpenAI routing
  • 138 tests pass in the active workspace; ruff and pyright clean

Why two sites

The research-notes site at https://ksk5429.github.io/research-notes is for the academic / offshore-wind PhD work. K-Fish is a separate agenda — high-frequency prediction-market forecasting with a distinct team dynamic, a public package to distribute, and a different cadence of reviews. Mixing the two diluted both. This site exists so collaborators can comment, review, and discuss without having to page through PhD content.

Canonical documents

Both primary planning documents are preserved verbatim and permalinkable:

  • 90-Day Build Guide — strategic plan for the 13-week sprint, covering the calibration spine, oracle analyzer, Korean Telegram bot, and Korean news pipeline.
  • Three-Repo GitHub Blueprint — the structural plan: private uv-workspace monorepo plus public MIT-licensed analyzer, with the full CI/CD / signing / release-please / SLSA-2 setup.

Where things are

  • ADRs — 10 decisions including DuckDB spine, agent-wallet custody model, Claude+OpenAI split, trunk-based signed commits.
  • Oracle Risk
  • Telegram Bot

For the stack overview, swarm, and calibration deep-dives, see the Docs tab — Swarm Architecture, Calibration Stack, Data Model.

Collaborating

Start here: how to collaborate → — the three-lane model (Discussion / Issue / PR), good-first-topics, what's in scope, and how reviewers get credit.

Quick links:

  • 💬 Open a Discussion (questions, ideas, reviews)
  • 🐛 File an issue (correction / review-request / site-bug)
  • ✏️ Edit this page via the pencil icon at the top-right

Korean legal status

The Korean Telegram bot is blocked from live trading pending counsel review. See the legal summary for what's pending and which firms to talk to.

For private trading alpha, the DMs or the private kfish repo's issue tracker are the places — never post prompts or position-sizing logic here.